HAS APC ANY REAL CHANCE OF BEATING JONATHAN IN 2015?

10 REASONS WHY JONATHAN MAY CONTINUE AS PRESIDENT AFTER 2015

president jonathan

Are you one of those believing that President Jonathan will not contest in 2015? Or have you been sucked in too by silly statements such as  the one made by a northern political lightweight that “the north will rise against Jonathan”. Please stop being fooled. Lets move a bit forward in the way we analyze  the likely future of our dear country.Let us be more realistic with ourselves in order to improve general discourse and perhaps influence the turn of events in our motherland.

This write-up is neither for or against President Jonathan.The points listed can be useful for or against our president.So if you belong to either side of the fence please feel free to express it the way you see it.

Thank you

 WHY  JONATHAN’S PRESIDENCY MAY OUTLAST 2015

1.The issue of whether he has spent 2 terms or not has not been resolved legally. If two terms equal 8 yrs there should be no election in 2015 until he has spent 8yrs.On the other hand some might argue that each election is for 4 yrs of a presidency no matter how many occupied the seat within the period.We might be looking at another Akinjide “two thirds” case on our hands.If not resolved now,History has shown that the Nigerian Supreme Court hardly decides against the interest of the incumbent President!

2.Northern politicians INCLUDING THOSE ON THE NEW PDP  will be bought over eventually. The governors who have spent two terms can be promised ministerial or ambassadorial appointments. Those who are going to seek for second terms might consider it safer to stay with a rolling train. Once these governors are trapped the battle is won for Jonathan.

3. The South-Eastern politicians are not seriously preparing to challenge Jonathan.Those who are making noise about 2015 presidency for that zone are very few anyway and will easily be “settled”

4.Opposition parties within and without PDP led by Atiku,Buhari and Tinubu have no hope of unseating an incumbent president.They are too many miles apart ideologically and would be loaded by PDP  pretenders or spies anyway before they can understand themselves.All their “strategies” will always be on PDP tables within 24 hours.As for Atiku,PDP by now knows how to handle his case and that of IBB.In reality OBJ only has a nuisance political weight.He has no real base to use to challenge Jonathan.In any case Anenih has been rescucitated to provide an alternate to him.

5.The PDP is made up of people with the same capitalist ideology.It does not matter whether they are from the north or south.Their interest is not really in geography or ethnicity.It is in the languages of naira,dollars and pounds sterling.It was so during NPN days and so shall it always be.

6.The armed forces have been “scattered” by locations,appointments and modern technology.If a coup takes place today in Abuja it is possible to  have 3 to 4 dissenting units all over the country with access to radio,tv,social media to counter such a coup.

7.The “rebels” or “freedom fighters” from the delta will rise up again to defend the pot of soup they are presently licking.Nigeria may therefore step backwards by another 8 yrs.Or do you think Jonathan is a fool by keeping the group “handy”?. In addition,the Ijaw nation will likely rise up once again as it did during the fuel price increase to defend their son and keep him on seat.

8.Jonathan so far has craftily avoided making deep enemies of any particular section of the country in line with Yar’adua policies and very much unlike OBJ who created eternal enemies for himself through military policies and styles of governance.Many of those who voted for him in some sections of the country might see him as a lesser evil even if they cannot identify anything positive about him.The Achilles heel of APC MAY LIE IN THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR 2015!


9.But is it true that there is nothing positive about Jonathan? Will the power supply situation fail to improve  before 2015?. Well we may have to leave each individual to determine what his/her priorities are to decide whether some sample of goodness is attachable to Jonathan or not.But the south-west may support him to some extent once the light situation improves.


10.My last and most important point is that INEC ,meaning Prof.Jega will rather prefer to work with him rather than againsthim (will you bite the hand feeding you so well?). So where is the hope for Buhari in 2015? It is locked up in a political suitcase.Like those of most Nigerians.

Capito?